Live Dialogue 

Session Details

Guest Name

Dr. Louay M. Safi

Profession

Political Scientist

Subject

"The Future of Syria Under Bashar Al-Assad "

Date

Friday, Jun 16 ,2000

Time

Mecca
From... 22:00...To... 00:00
GMT
From... 19:00...To...21:00

Name

Haroon  - United States

Profession

journalist

Question

What sort of immediate changes do you think Bashar will make in the opening stages of his presidency?

Answer

Bashar has been part of the decision-making in Syria for at least 1 year. What we know from his actions is that he is for reforming the economy and fighting corruption in the government. From the steps he has taken, we can see that those who have been targeted by the investigation are mainly people that don't have a strong political base and are mainly people who have reportedly been critical of his assuming the realm of power. We have to wait and see whether fighting corruption will be more systematic.

As far as his economic reform program, the steps that we should be looking for would have to include establishing more rigorous and fair application of the law. This should build confidence in the system and make the possibility of private enterprises and investment from within and without more real.

Name

Aaron  - United States

Profession

Question

How do you think the change will affect the Islamists in Syria?

Answer

I would say that the Islamists are not a serious political force today in Syria. After the confrontation in the later part of the 1970's and early 80's, the Syrian regime was able to crush the political organization of the Ikhwan who represented then the rising political Islamic movement.

It all depends at the moment on whether Bashar is willing to introduce more democratic participation and allow the competing political forces in the country to have presence within the system. Again, it is still very early to assess whether or not that will become a reality. I can say, though, that if economic openness and liberalization is being contemplated at this moment, then political democratization is likely to take place. And if this were to happen, the Islamists are likely to play an important role in the future politics of Syria.

Name

affari    - Morocco

Profession

student

Question

What's the difference between al aqidah and shari'a?

Answer

Aqidah consists of a set of beliefs and understandings of the meaning of life, the purpose of existence, and the destiny of the human being. When these beliefs are derived from interpretation of the divine revelation of the Qur'an, Muslim scholars refer to them as aqidah.

Shari'a, on the other hand, is a Qur'anic term that refers to the basic rules and principles that a Muslim should adhere to and bring closer to his or her heart, to live in accordance with the purpose of creation.

So, aqidah and shari'a complement each other in the life of the Muslim.

Name

Sanaa  - United States

Profession

Question

So far, how have the Syrian people received Bashar? Does he have genuine public support, or are the people cautious because of the way his father ran the country?

Answer

We can only judge by news reports as well as by statements made by people who are close to Bashar. Clearly, Hafiz Assad's rule was legitimized by creating a culture of hero worship. Many Syrians, one can speculate, realized that they have no other alternative to look for. And, considering those who have political clout, Bashar appears to be the one that brings hope for a badly needed reform.

This perhaps explains the apparently strong support reported by the media. While some of it might be orchestrated, because of the reasons stated above, many others are likely to give Bashar support.

Name

Jamsheed  - United States

Profession

Question

What reforms are Bashar focusing on and what does he expect to gain/accomplish by establishing these reforms?

Answer

It seems to me that his focus at this moment is on the modernization of the economy. He has been a major force in introducing the internet to Syria and in trying to improve communication with the outside world. But, as I said earlier, for economic reform to be effective, doses of democratization will be necessary. This would include more freedom of expression, the permission of multi-party systems, whereby different ideas and points of view can be represented in the parliament and debated among Syrian leaders. Again, there must be more systematic campaign against corruption, so that confidence in the government bureaucracy and judicial system can be restored.

Name

Sausan    - 

Profession

Question

How have the countries around Syria reacted to Bashar being elected?

Answer

Generally speaking, there has been clear support from countries within the region and beyond. This has to do also with the legacy of Hafiz Assad as an outstanding tactician. Bashar himself has been very active on the international plain. Last year, he visited many Arab countries, on a diplomatic mission, as well as France. The most support came from leaders in the Lebanese government who have been interacting with Bashar extensively since he was given charge of the Lebanon portfolio last year. Ironically, the only challenge to him came from his uncle Rifaat Assad, who laid claim for the presidency and vowed to lead a "corrective movement", a name usually used in Syria to refer to the peaceful coup led by Hafiz Assad in 1970.

Name

Khaleel    - United States

Profession

Question

What strengths and weaknesses do you think Bashar has?

Answer

One clear strength Bashar has that could possibly turn to push reform in Syria is that he has reluctantly come to political power. Up until 1994, he was pursuing a medical career. When his older brother Basil, who has been groomed to succeed his father, died, he was summoned from his studies in England and was put on a rapid track in the military. To me, this shows that he didn't have early on any political ambition. This may translate into focusing on improving the country rather than building his own glory. Indeed, this is what Syria needs at this moment, to be able to face the challenges of tomorrow. Of course, to be able to achieve a genuine reform of Syrian economy and politics, he will have to free himself from the pressures that are likely to mount from those who have benefited from corruption in the past. And, this represents the weakness that he has, that is, he came to power through his father and that might prove to be a limiting factor in his presidency.

Name

Sarab    - United States

Profession

Question

From what we all know about Bashar's background, not having any formal introduction to politics, only through his father. Will Bashar follow in his father's footsteps or will he prove to the world that he is not like Hafez al Assad but he can be better than his father?

Answer

No one can say for sure what policies and positions Bashar will take or whether he will lead a genuine reform in the country. One can only hope, based on his recent campaign against corruption in the country, that he would clean the bureaucracy and other government institutions from corruption. To do that, he will need support from beyond the echelons of power and he can only get that by mobilizing popular support and allowing political forces from outside the ruling party to participate in this endeavor. This, however, remains to be seen.

Name

Saladin    - United States

Profession

Question

Given that Hafez Assad had relatively little time to prepare/groom both Bashar for leadership and create an atmosphere within the cabinet, councils, ministries, bureaucracies, "friendly" to Bashar, are there any elements within the Syrian government that may impede or overpower Bashar? In other words, is it possible that he may be overthrown relatively soon and/or easily?

Answer

It is true that Bashar had to face the current situation before he was given the time to have a good grip on the governing institutions. It was widely known that he was supposed to be named the vice president and given a post within the ruling party during the Baath party meeting scheduled for June 17th (tomorrow). But, the death of his father before the party meeting took place created complications. But judging by the steps that been taken so far by the leadership in Damascus is more likely to assume the helm of power without any serious challenge to his rule. Hafiz Assad was able to discharge two key opponents of Bashar's assumption of power in the last few months. In September, Hikmat Shihaby was relieved from his post as the chief of staff of the Army while Ali Duba, the former chief intelligence, was discharged last March. Clearly, the Minister of Defense and the current Chief of Staff have already declared allegiance to Bashar right after he was named  commander in chief by the acting president. The current chief intelligence is his brother-in-law and a known supporter. In addition, the only challenger to his nomination to the presidency, Rifaat Assad, was dealt a serious blow last fall when his last cleavage of power, a small port he controlled near the city of Latekia, was taken from him after a brief confrontation with his supporters.

I do not think that there is any serious challenge for Bashar and he is most likely to assume the presidency without and major opposition.

Name

Mustafa    - 

Profession

Question

As far as the reforms are concerned, how do you think the internet may have an impact on the Syrian society? Will it be good or bad?

Answer

This is a good question. As it is well known, Bashar is behind the efforts to bring the internet to Syria. In fact, he directs the Syrian Internet Association. With the introduction of the internet, it will be difficult to control information and speech, a tactic that was used extensively under his father. With more information available to people, political stability can only be achieved through further democratizing the system and allowing power-sharing arrangements among social groups in the country.

Name

Mourad    - Australia

Profession

Student

Question

1. How much of the future decisions of Syria under the new president will be dictated by foreign powers?

2. What will make the new president better (or worse) than his predecessor.

Many thanks.

Answer

One of the distinctive aspects of Hafiz Assad's rule was his ability to master the art of balancing powers. This enabled him to benefit from the shifting winds of global power and use that to his own advantage. Syria's incursion into Lebanon is a good example of Assad's ability to manipulate the political circumstances to work for him. In 1982, he sent Syrian troops into Lebanon to save the Christian minority who were on the verge of collapse under the pressure of the PLO. By restoring the balance of power within Lebanon, he guaranteed not only the support of the rivaling minorities there, but also foreign powers who had interest in the region, including France and the United States.

It's not clear at this moment, given Bashar's lack of experience, whether the son will follow in the footsteps of the father. But, one can argue that there is plenty of diplomatic experience around Bashar, particularly in the person of Abdulhalim Khaddam, the current acting president and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Faruq Al-Shara'.

As to your second question, the acid test of whether Bashar's presidency will represent improvement would be whether he will bring political reforms, democratization and respect for human rights on the one hand, and whether he could improve the economy. Another test for Bashar would be how he will handle Israel's design to dominate the region. One credit Hafiz Assad can make is that he effectively resisted the expansionist policies of Israel and rendered unwavering support to the Lebanese assistance. Would Bashar be able to the same? This remains to be seen.